Convexly
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Transform decisions into measurable bets

Track predictions, run Monte Carlo simulations, and calibrate your judgment with quantitative feedback. Make every decision count.

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Everything you need to decide better

Convexly gives you the quantitative tools to move from gut-feel decisions to data-driven judgment.

Decision Tracking

Log predictions with probability estimates and expected payoffs. Track outcomes over time to build a quantitative decision journal.

Monte Carlo Simulation

Run thousands of randomized scenarios against your decision portfolio to stress-test strategies and find hidden risks.

Calibration Scoring

Measure how well your confidence matches reality. Brier scores and calibration curves reveal where your judgment needs tuning.

Upside Ratio Analysis

Identify decisions with asymmetric upside. Tail analysis and Upside Ratio metrics show which bets have the best risk/reward shape.

How it works

Three simple steps to go from intuition to evidence-based decision making.

1

Log Your Decisions

Record predictions with probability estimates and potential payoffs for each scenario.

2

Track Outcomes

Mark decisions as resolved and see how your forecasts compare to reality over time.

3

Improve Over Time

Use calibration curves, Brier scores, and convexity metrics to sharpen your judgment.

Simple, transparent pricing

Start free. Upgrade when you need more power.

Free

$0forever

Perfect for trying Convexly and building the habit

  • Up to 100 decisions
  • Basic dashboard
  • Calibration scores
  • Brier score tracking
Get Started
Most Popular

Pro

$29/month

For individuals serious about improving judgment

  • Unlimited decisions
  • Monte Carlo simulations
  • Decision graphs
  • AI coaching & behavioral insights
  • Strategy comparison
  • Full analytics & export
Upgrade to Pro

Team

$79/seat/month

For teams making high-stakes decisions together

  • Everything in Pro
  • Shared dashboards
  • Team calibration
  • Role-based access
  • Team analytics
  • 500K simulation iterations
Upgrade to Team

Enterprise

$199/seat/month

For organizations embedding decision intelligence at scale

  • Everything in Team
  • SSO & audit logs
  • Dedicated support
  • Custom integrations
  • 1M simulation iterations
  • SLA guarantee
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On the Roadmap

Even more is coming

We're building Convexly into the complete decision intelligence platform. Here's what's next.

Mobile App

Track decisions and check calibration scores on the go. Add-to-homescreen PWA with offline support.

Coming Soon

Public Profiles

Opt-in calibration profiles. Share your forecast track record and prove your judgment quality.

Coming Soon

Start making better decisions today

Join the growing community of quantitative thinkers who track, simulate, and calibrate their decisions.

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