PolymarketliveKalshilive
See which Polymarket wallets have actually been right.
Paste any Polymarket wallet and get its calibration, sizing, concentration, and Edge Score in about 30 seconds. No signup.
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Edge Score is a composite of calibration, conviction, and discipline against a frozen 8,656-wallet reference cohort. It describes the past record, not a forecast.
No wallet connection/Public resolved positions only/Receipts attached when claims matter.
Receipts, including the misses
We publish our own failed tests.
Most analytics tools show you only what works. We publish the misses too: Edge Score follow-up tests that missed the bar we set for them in advance, a 24-aggregator study where none beat the market, and the finding that calibration barely predicts profit. Every serious claim points back to a frozen method and a receipt you can open.
Negative resultsPre-registration manifestEdge Score method (V1-M)Evidence ledgerSignal track recordAudit-chain verifier
Share of total signed profit
n = 8,656
Top 1% of wallets capture 36.2% of all signed profit across 8,656 Polymarket wallets, yet calibration explains almost none of the variation in realized profit across this cohort: a descriptive read of the past record, not a forecast.