Not all whales are smart money.
Convexly ranks every Polymarket wallet by forward-looking skill, not backward-looking PnL. Pre-registered methodology on 8,656 wallets, fully reproducible.
Are you skilled or lucky?
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Top 10 Polymarket wallets by Edge Score V3b
Refreshed daily at 06:00 UTC. Compare against the PnL-only leaderboard →
A leaderboard that ranks skill, not luck.
Every Polymarket wallet with twenty or more resolved positions, scored on three pillars that actually predict forward profit. Refreshed daily. Free to browse.
Does the wallet make money despite imprecise calibration?
Baseline-adjusted Brier score. The top-profit wallets tend to be mis-calibrated in a specific, learnable direction. Internally referred to as Posture in the methodology paper.
Is the PnL from one event, or a repeatable edge?
Share of realized PnL from the wallet's single largest event. High conviction equals barbell concentration.
Fewer, larger bets, or spray-and-pray?
Position count, inverted. On Polymarket, more positions predicts lower signed PnL. Focus wins.
PnL is mostly luck. Skill is measured differently.
Across 8,656 Polymarket wallets, calibration (Brier) explains only +0.148 Spearman correlation with realized PnL. The top 1% by profit captured 36.2% of all signed gains, and most of them did not do it by being better-calibrated. They concentrated on a few high-conviction bets that paid.
Convexly's composite ranker pulls this apart. Three pillars, fit against the cohort, out-of-fold Spearman +0.514. The wallets you want to follow are not the ones with the biggest PnL screenshots.
V1-M paper (cross-venue invariance)